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Trader Overview
2468 (0x951dd7b060a2dd287ffd488ee27072d3684d8385) Polymarket trader turned $11.8K into $25.9K in withdrawals with a 97% win rate — the kind of spreadsheet trader who doesn't chase hype, just compiles edges across 66 esports prediction markets.
Conservative play, obsessive execution. 2468 runs the numbers like someone who read every Kelly Criterion post on Twitter, then actually used it. 67 total trades across League of Legends, Dota, Counter-Strike and fighting games — niche verticals where retail attention span dies fast and real signal lives. Rank 6656 on Polymarket leaderboard, but the PnL tells the actual story: $14K profit on a $11.8K deposit is a 118.56% ROI, meaning this wallet withdrew more than double the initial stake and still came out clean.
The edge is ruthless simplicity: 96.96% win rate on prediction markets means 2468 doesn't gamble, he arbitrages noise. Trades once every five days on average, keeps position sizes tight ($2.6K avg bet), and enters near breakeven odds (0.916 average entry). That's not luck — that's someone waiting for the crowd to mis-price esports outcomes, then exiting the moment fair value returns. One killer example: crushed the LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana market for $3,963 profit on the same trade his worst loss came from (−$4,121), which screams positional discipline — he survived the drawdown and scaled back in.
What separates this Polymarket whale from 99% degens: zero gambling instinct. Low risk tier, conservative trader type, and a buy-sell ratio near 1.03 means he's patient on entries and exits. Most prediction markets traders chase volatility; 2468 farms the spreads. Hit 66 different markets — breadth suggests systems, not random bets. The 97% win rate on prediction markets across 67 trades isn't noise.
Currently holding one open position. Net transfers of −$14K (deposited $11.8K, withdrew $25.9K) mean this Polymarket trader already pocketed profits and is running on house money. Risk caveat: esports odds move fast when real information (roster changes, player health, coaching swaps) drops. His edge relies on better timing than the crowd; if retail finally wakes up to League prediction markets, edges compress hard. Still, the math is undeniable — 118.56% ROI on Polymarket is the kind of boring execution that actually prints.
conservativeRisk: low