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Trader Overview
aithan25364 (0x61e93ca43b7d40e0e0794157d04beca2022bcb1b) Polymarket trader burned through $38K net deposits to flip $18K profit — then lost 43% on the actual capital. This is what happens when you have a 67% win rate and still bleed out.
The stats look clean on paper. Rank 5622, 223 total trades across 183 markets, 67% win rate, $18.2K absolute PnL. Whale-tier volume at $1.1M traded. Forty trades per day velocity. But the ROI math? Negative 43%. That's the real story. Started with $61K in total deposits, pulled $22.5K out early (smart move?), sits at $12.1K portfolio value today. One wallet that proves you can have the edge and still lose it.
The strategy is pure noise farming — esports betting with razor-thin edge detection. Locked into League of Legends markets hardest (best trade was LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs for $2,409 PnL, worst trade on Sentinels vs LYON dropped $5,485 losses). Sixty-seven percent accuracy means he's reading something. Three-to-one buy-to-sell ratio signals accumulation discipline, not panic selling. But then — open twelve positions right now while portfolio bleeds.
Here's the knife edge: high win rate traders crash harder because one bad event cluster wipes months of scalping gains. His average entry at 0.73 means he's buying undervalued noise, not chasing momentum. That's the edge. The max single win was $2,409. Max single loss hit $5,485. You see it — losses run 2.3x the average winner. Position sizing doesn't scale with conviction. Thirty trades daily is exhausting your edge faster than you generate it.
The real risk layer: ROI of negative 43% on deposits while PnL sits positive $18K tells you withdrawals and deposit timing are crushing him. He pulled out at the wrong moments. Currently holding twelve live positions with $12.1K working capital. One bad esports upset (they happen constantly in LoL) and he's margin calling.
Check this wallet on prediction market analytics platforms to track whether he survives the next drawdown or if the low risk label is just survivorship bias so far.
whaleRisk: low