0x2ef0e278354A971b4cACB02089E43526dea762fd Polymarket trader turned $100K into $149K in raw PnL — then lost it all back to -86% ROI in under two weeks, posting a perfect 100% win rate while bleeding capital like a textbook case of survivorship illusion. Meet the sniper. Rank 750, 14 total trades across 14 markets, averaging $12.1K per position and moving 8.8 trades per day. The wallet screams speed over size — micro-positioned, high-frequency noise collection on pure Bitcoin up/down binary markets. Bio empty. Wallet dark. Strategy darker: hit Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5AM ET for a clean $105K swing (best trade), then immediately booked the inverse on Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3PM ET for $10K. Both wins. Both irrelevant. The edge here is razor-thin and already broken. This Polymarket trader operates on what looks like arbitrage or panic-selling collection — buying dips on binary markets when retail liquidates, selling rallies when fear spikes. 100% win rate across 14 trades should be impossible. It's not. It means every single position closed green, yet ROI sits at -86%. Do the math: portfolio value is now $13.6K on a $100K deposit. The big wins ($105K on one trade) happened early. Everything after has been slow bleed. This is the classic degen arc: one perfect trade, then size into noise, then position rot. Current state: 9 open positions, zero withdrawals ever. Still holding. Risk level flagged medium but feels higher — the 17:1 buy-sell ratio suggests he's still accumulating on dips, averaging down on losers, expecting mean reversion that isn't coming. Prediction market arbitrage on micro-timeframes works until liquidity dries up or you're wrong on timing once. He's been right 14 times. The math says he's also been incredibly lucky, or he's discovered a flaw in how Polymarket prices binary outcomes at edges. Neither lasts. Not everyone who goes 14-0 on Polymarket stays solvent. This trader proof-tested that rule hard.